The ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra is facing significant challenges after its tough local body election campaign. This coalition was formed in 2022 when Eknath Shinde left the Shiv Sena, resulting in the fall of Uddhav Thackeray's government, and he became chief minister. The coalition changed again the following year when Ajit Pawar split from his uncle Sharad Pawar's NCP and joined Shinde's government. The coalition worked well, with Shinde as chief minister and the BJP's Devendra Fadnavis and Pawar as his deputies, until 2024, when a big victory in the Assembly elections presented the first real challenge for Mahayuti. The BJP became the largest party by a wide margin, winning 132 out of 288 seats, which was just 13 seats short of having a majority alone. The Shinde Sena secured 57 seats, and Ajit Pawar's NCP gained 41, while Uddhav Thackeray's Sena faction only achieved 20 seats, being the most successful among the opposition. Shinde claimed that his leadership and policies were responsible for the victory, pushing to keep the chief minister position.

However, the BJP was not willing to give in, and a disappointed Shinde agreed to take the deputy chief minister role instead. He realized that the BJP and Pawar's NCP had enough support to form a government without him. For the BJP, having Shinde and Pawar as partners helped to keep both sides from pushing for too much power and demanding a bigger role in governance. Then, the local body elections began, introducing new dynamics, with Mahayuti parties competing against each other in some areas. Notably, the Shinde Sena and the BJP came together to contest elections for the Mumbai, Pune, and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal corporations, leaving Pawar out of the picture. This change stirred up the political landscape in Maharashtra, leading to discussions about a possible reunion within the Pawar family. Both factions of the Pawar family decided to join forces for the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal elections, areas that used to be NCP strongholds.

Tensions rose, particularly from Ajit Pawar's side. He referenced the BJP's frequent claims about his connection to a Rs 70,000-crore irrigation scam before he allied with them. Pawar criticized the Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation, which was controlled by the BJP from 2017 to 2022, for being plagued with corruption for nine years, resulting in increasing debts. "Everyone knows I faced allegations regarding a Rs 70,000-crore irrigation scam. Now, I am in power with those who accused me. Can a person be declared guilty before there is any proof? " Pawar questioned.

He then mentioned that the Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation was overrun by "groups of thieves" and suggested that the current government in Maharashtra displayed an "arrogance of power" that was not seen during the time when Congress and NCP were in charge of the state. While the BJP urged Pawar to reflect on his statements and cautioned him about "difficulties" if he continued to make such claims, Fadnavis spoke more openly. "Some people only speak up when elections are near," the chief minister commented, adding that the partners had agreed to compete amicably, but Ajit Pawar's composure was "somewhat disturbed. "

The BJP had a significant victory in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, becoming the largest party in the BMC; however, it requires support from Shinde's Shiv Sena to appoint its own mayor, which has created another source of tension that remains unresolved. Against this backdrop, Ajit Pawar's plane crashed in Baramati on Wednesday morning, resulting in a loss not only for Maharashtra but also for the Mahayuti, as it eliminated an important member and a leader for the BJP who could have countered Shinde's ambitions. A major concern for the BJP and Fadnavis will be to prevent the MLAs from Ajit Pawar's group from switching to Sharad Pawar's NCP, which would strengthen the opposition and Shinde's position in the governing coalition. One possible way to handle this could be to appoint another party member to Ajit Pawar's deputy chief minister role, but that is challenging without a clear second-in-command.

Another significant issue for Maharashtra's complicated politics will be what happens to the two factions of the NCP now that one side has lost its uncontested leader and evidently the most popular figure. The Ajit Pawar group outperformed his 85-year-old uncle's faction in both the Assembly and municipal elections, positioning his party as the true NCP. There were discussions about a possible NCP reunification, with expectations that Ajit Pawar would take the lead in Maharashtra, while Sharad Pawar's daughter and MP Supriya Sule, who is not viewed as a strong leader, would manage affairs in Delhi. The secondary leadership in Ajit Pawar's NCP is thought to include Lok Sabha MP Sunil Tatkare and Rajya Sabha MPs Praful Patel and Pawar's wife Sunetra Pawar, who may now compete for power.

There is also Parth Pawar, Ajit's son, whose initial political ambition faltered when he lost the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 by a large margin and got involved in land scam allegations in Pune last year. The faction also has two former ministers with public appeal, but analysts do not see them as leading candidates: Dhananjay Munde and Chhagan Bhujbal. The competition might become even more fierce if the NCP factions unite. Sharad Pawar might want Sule to be the figurehead, which could be unacceptable to Sunetra Pawar and others from Ajit Pawar's side, leaving the party in a difficult position.