(Image source from: Dailythanthi.com)

After many years of declining chances in the yearly H-1B lottery, American companies saw a significant improvement in 2026 when selecting skilled foreign workers through the visa program. The rate of approving these desirable visas has risen to its highest point in recent times. In some cases, the approval rate for H-1B visas has hit 75%, with overall selections exceeding 50%. This improvement is mainly attributed to the immigration policies of US President Donald Trump, which altered the H-1B visa program and reduced the number of applicants. A report from Bloomberg Law, a US news organization, highlighted that top immigration firms and employers experienced much better success rates in the lottery for this specialized visa program.

The report indicated that in the past, the chances of being selected were about one in three, around 33%. This year, however, many leading immigration law firms and service providers reported selection rates significantly above 50%. For example, at BAL, a firm focused on business immigration law, some clients had selection rates of over 60%.

Other law firms, such as Ogletree Deakins and Erickson Immigration Group, along with Boundless Immigration, also reported better results for H-1B visa approvals compared to previous years. For high-paying jobs and applicants with master’s degrees, the rates even exceeded 75% in some instances. This surge in approval rates wasn't random; it was influenced by policies from the Trump administration that altered the H-1B program.

While the administration put in place a new weighted lottery system aimed at favoring higher-income and senior employees, the main reason for the increase in selection rates was a significant drop in the total number of applicants. The primary reason for this smaller applicant pool was a $100,000 fee imposed by the White House on all new H-1B workers brought in from abroad. This high cost made it extremely difficult for many employers to recruit internationally. Consequently, it virtually stopped most new hires from outside the US by universities and hospitals, which had traditionally depended on the H-1B visa program. Tech firms and other businesses that faced the annual visa limit mostly chose not to sponsor foreign workers. This group had represented about 40% of new H-1B hires in recent years, according to Bloomberg Law.

As a result, there was a significant decline in the total number of people signing up for the lottery. Estimates from the immigration law firm, Lawfully, which were mentioned by Bloomberg Law, predicted that there would be between 195,000 and 235,000 applications for the H-1B visa this spring - a decrease of up to 43% compared to last year and the lowest count since the online lottery started in 2020. Just three years ago, more than 750,000 people had signed up for this visa category. Now, with only 85,000 visas available each year, the much smaller number of applicants naturally increased the chances of getting selected. Immigration lawyer Kelli Duehning from BAL noted that the $100,000 fee was "the big delta," the main reason for the higher selection chances. This fee particularly helped workers already living in the US, as their employers could enter them into the lottery without having to pay the extra cost. The Trump administration also completed a major change to the H-1B lottery system in December.

The earlier random system was changed to a weighted one that allows workers to apply up to four times, based on their wage level. This new system prioritizes roles that have higher pay and more experience, directing visas to the most skilled and well-paid individuals, rather than fresh graduates who have less experience and make lower wages. Lawyers pointed out that these changes to the H-1B program achieved the Trump administration's goal of benefiting more experienced talent. Alejandra Zapatero from Erickson Immigration Group was quoted by Bloomberg Law, saying that her firm’s largest clients had selection rates between 44% and 71%, with even better results for those with higher salaries.

Other reasons also led to the smaller number of H-1B applicants. The report stated that the tech industry, which often uses the H-1B program, has cut back on hiring after investing heavily in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and concentrating on recruiting for senior positions.

Many employers also took a careful "wait and see" approach amid frequent changes in policies, deciding to pass on this year's lottery. To provide context, several lawsuits are disputing the $100,000 fee in federal courts, including the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, the Northern District of California, and the District of Massachusetts. Even if the fee is eliminated, new rules proposed by the Labor Department could greatly increase the salary requirements for H-1B workers, possibly steering more employers to other options. In conclusion, Trump's policies, especially the fee for new hires from outside the country, have effectively decreased the number of applications, making this year’s H-1B lottery much more predictable and winnable for participants. The program now favors higher-paid, experienced foreign workers more strongly, although its future direction still depends on court decisions and additional regulatory changes.